Daily Murders in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In President Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The typical number of everyday killings each month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh government statistics. However, security analysts have cautioned that homicide data may not indicate improved national security.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 killings a day in November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the leadership in September of last year. This data was shared by the head of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded during these months is very important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, noting that the previous month the smallest number of murders were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Violent cartel infighting, alongside the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent times. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than the US. However, homicides have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an seemingly more pronounced drop in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Greater cooperation between government agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety experts cautioned that using murder statistics to draw a conclusion of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true considering the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“It would be excellent news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer valid for assessing the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the inclination to accurately recognize and classify bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of everyday homicides was similarly an issue because it could obscure periods when there were notably spiking levels of killings.

“Employing the daily mean makes high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

However despite these measures, Mexico remains plagued by high bloodshed, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to express their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to construct a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas concluded.